Delaney Poll vs Trone Poll
Who Do You Believe Delaney Poll vs Trone Poll
Delaney Poll vs Trone Poll
Four , Two Stories, and One Big Question: Which Poll Should Maryland Democrats Believe?
By Barry O’Connell
Opinion Columnist, The Maryland Wire
One of the things I try very hard to do here at The Maryland Wire is tell readers not just what happened, but how to think about what happened.
That’s especially important when it comes to polling.
Right now, Maryland’s Sixth Congressional District race has become a perfect example of why political polling can confuse voters.
David Trone has a poll showing him ahead.
April McClain Delaney has three polls showing her ahead.
Both campaigns want you to believe their numbers.
So let’s slow down and take a look at what we actually know.
The First Thing I Look At Isn’t The Numbers
Most people look at a poll and immediately focus on the result.
Who’s winning?
By how much?
I understand that instinct, but it isn’t where I start.
The first thing I look at is who conducted the poll.
Not because pollsters are perfect.
Because some pollsters have spent decades building a public reputation while others are relatively unknown.
That matters.
Delaney’s Pollster Has A Long Track Record
April McClain Delaney’s campaign has released polling from Hart Research Associates.
If you’ve followed Democratic politics for any length of time, you’ve probably heard the name before.
Hart has been around for decades.
They have worked on major races.
They have a long public track record.
More importantly, they have a reputation they have to protect.
That doesn’t mean every Hart poll is right.
No pollster is right all the time.
What it does mean is that when Hart releases a poll, political professionals have a large body of work they can examine.
There is history.
There is context.
There is a reputation.
Trone’s Pollster Is Much Harder To Evaluate
The poll showing David Trone ahead was conducted by The Public Sentiment Institute, often referred to as TPSI.
Here’s where things become difficult.
When I started digging into TPSI, I expected to find the same sort of public history that exists for firms like Hart.
Where are they based?
Who runs the firm?
What major campaigns have they worked on?
How accurate have they been in previous elections?
What is their public polling record?
I wasn’t able to find much of that information.
Now let’s be clear.
That does not mean TPSI is dishonest.
It does not mean their poll is wrong.
It does not mean their methodology is flawed.
What it means is that I have less information available to evaluate their credibility and track record.
Those are not the same thing.
The Sample Size Is What Really Gets My Attention
Even more important than the name of the pollster is the size of the survey.
The Hart polls surveyed roughly 500 to 600 likely Democratic voters.
And they did it repeatedly.
December.
March.
April.
Three separate polls.
Three separate snapshots.
All telling essentially the same story.
Delaney ahead.
The margin moves around a bit, but the overall picture remains remarkably consistent.
The TPSI poll surveyed only 154 likely Democratic primary voters.
That doesn’t make it wrong.
But it does make me cautious.
A smaller sample means more volatility.
A handful of respondents can move the numbers significantly.
That’s simply the reality of polling.
Could Trone’s Poll Be Right?
Absolutely.
In fact, that’s the point many readers miss.
I am not saying the Trone poll is fake.
I am not saying the Trone poll is manipulated.
I am not saying the Trone poll is impossible.
It is entirely possible that TPSI captured a moment in time when Trone had unusually strong support.
Polls are snapshots.
They are not permanent records carved into stone tablets.
The poll could even turn out to be closer to the truth than the Hart polls.
Stranger things have happened in politics.
But Here’s What Gives Me Pause
When I step back and look at the available evidence, one thing jumps out at me.
Three larger polls from a nationally recognized polling firm tell one story.
One much smaller poll from a relatively unknown firm tells a completely different story.
As an analyst, that doesn’t automatically make the smaller poll wrong.
But it does mean the burden of proof shifts.
If one survey is an outlier and three others are pointing in the same direction, I naturally want to know why.
What explains the difference?
What assumptions were made?
What voter model was used?
What did one poll see that the others missed?
Those are reasonable questions.
What I Have To Tell Readers
If you’re looking for my honest assessment, it’s this:
I find the Hart polling easier to trust.
Not because I support Delaney.
Not because I oppose Trone.
Not because I think Hart is incapable of making mistakes.
I find it easier to trust because it comes from a well-known firm with a long public record, larger sample sizes, and three separate surveys that all tell a similar story.
The TPSI poll may ultimately prove correct.
I can’t rule that out.
But at the moment, I don’t see enough publicly available information to make me comfortable elevating one 154-person survey above three larger surveys conducted over several months.
The Bottom Line
What readers should understand is that this isn’t really a debate between David Trone and April McClain Delaney.
It’s a debate between competing pieces of evidence.
One side is offering three larger polls from a nationally recognized firm with a long track record.
The other side is offering one smaller poll from a firm whose public history is much harder to evaluate.
That doesn’t make one side honest and the other dishonest.
It simply means that if you’re weighing the evidence, one set of numbers comes with a lot more context and a lot more history attached to it.
And when I’m trying to separate political spin from political reality, that’s usually where I start.
Somebody is going to be dropping poll results very soon. When they come out, ask the hard questions. Who did the survey? Do they have a track record? Are the numbers consistent and believable? If they are, you can put more faith in the poll than if it comes out of left field with numbers that don’t match anything else.
Trust neither one. There is no greater oxymoron in politics than the so-called “internal poll” that is distributed publicly. They exist solely to energize their base, appeal to undecided voters, demonstrate viability to the chattering class and reassure restive donors.