MD‑05 Frontrunners

Sorting the Field: My Early Read on the MD‑05 Frontrunners

Hoyer Going Out On Top!

Sorting the Field: My Early Read on the MD‑05 Frontrunners

With Steny Hoyer stepping aside after more than four decades, Maryland’s 5th Congressional District is suddenly wide open. The early chatter has produced a long list of names, but not all of them belong in the same tier. Before getting to the real contenders, it’s worth clearing away some of the low‑hanging fruit — the candidates who, for one reason or another, don’t look like frontrunners to me.

Nicole Williams: A Well‑Known Delegate, But Not in This District

Nicole Williams is a respected figure in Prince George’s County politics, but she represents District 22, which sits inside Maryland’s 4th Congressional District, not the 5th. There’s nothing illegal about running outside your home district, but it’s rarely an advantage. Add to that the fact that she isn’t a countywide household name, and I don’t see her as a top‑tier contender here.

Rushern Baker: A Familiar Face, But Not a Strong Fit for This Race

I’ve known of Rushern Baker for 25 years. We lived in the same town, attended the same church, and belonged to the same pool club. Despite all that proximity, we’ve never exchanged a single word. That’s not a crime — some people are simply reserved — but it does reflect something I’ve observed about him over the years: he’s not naturally outgoing, and he doesn’t always engage with people who support him.

His bigger political problem has always been fundraising. Baker has struggled to raise competitive money in multiple races, and in a congressional primary where resources matter, that’s a serious handicap. Others may take him seriously; I don’t see him as a frontrunner in this particular contest.

Wala Blegay: A Polarizing Progressive in a Complicated District

Wala Blegay sits firmly on the far-left progressive end of Prince George’s County politics. Progressives currently hold significant influence in county government, but that doesn’t automatically translate into broad appeal in a congressional primary that spans PG, Charles, St. Mary’s, and Calvert.

She has taken strong positions on foreign policy — especially regarding Israel and Gaza — that place her well to the left of mainstream Democratic leadership. Those positions may energize some voters, but they also risk mobilizing well‑funded opposition. In a district where national groups can and do get involved, that’s a strategic vulnerability.

Her relationship with other Democratic factions in the county is also complicated. She has her base, but she’s not universally embraced across the broader Democratic coalition. That makes her path to a plurality harder than it looks on paper.

Harry Dunn: A Potential Heavyweight — If He Runs

Harry Dunn, the former U.S. Capitol Police officer who became nationally known after January 6th, would instantly become one of the most formidable candidates in the race. He’s well‑liked, he’s compelling, and he would raise serious money from day one.

But the question is whether he runs. There are persistent rumors about personal matters he may not want dragged into a congressional campaign. If he jumps in, he’s a top‑tier contender. If he stays out, the field shifts dramatically.

Adrian Boafo: Young, Personable, and Already Building a Machine

Adrian Boafo is one of the few candidates who clearly belongs in the top tier right now. He’s personable, articulate, and ambitious. His family roots trace to Ghana, and he presents himself with confidence and ease.

He does have vulnerabilities. His height gets mentioned more than it should in politics, but voters notice these things. More substantively, he had a minor encounter with law enforcement a few years ago involving a citation. The details and resolution aren’t widely known, but it’s the kind of thing that could resurface in a competitive primary.

Boafo was once closely aligned with Hoyer, and early speculation assumed Hoyer would endorse him. That hasn’t happened. Nor has Senator Angela Alsobrooks endorsed him. Those missing endorsements don’t disqualify him, but they do complicate the narrative some expected him to run on.

Still, he’s young, energetic, and already raising a lot of money. He’s a real contender. If he gets the Hoyer endorsement he will be unstoppable.

Second tier

Quincy Bareebe: A Wildcard With Potential Resources

Quincy Bareebe is one of the more intriguing second‑tier candidates. She’s originally from sub‑Saharan Africa — Uganda — and she’s well‑spoken and poised. There’s a rumor circulating that she has access to significant financial backing from African business leaders in Prince George’s County. I can’t confirm that, but she did send out an expensive mailer early in the cycle, which suggests she’s not running on fumes.

Bareebehac Cash On Hand of $502,000 and over $800,000 in debt.

Harry Jaron: A Pleasant Candidate With Potential National Fundraising

Harry Jaron is another candidate I’ve spoken with. He’s thoughtful, personable, and married to a man who works in national Democratic fundraising circles. If that network activates on his behalf, he could raise meaningful money. Whether that happens remains to be seen.

Others in the Field

There are additional filed candidates I haven’t interacted with personally. They include:

• - Terry Jackson II

• - Tracy Starr

• - Elldwnia English

• - Alexis Solis

• - Michelle Talkington (Republican)

Some may have compelling stories or local bases of support, but at this stage, none appear to be breaking into the top tier.

So Who Are the Real Frontrunners?

Based on what we know today — filings, early chatter, political positioning, and the dynamics of the district — the candidates who look most viable right now are:

• - Adrian Boafo

• - Harry Dunn (if he runs)

• - Wala Blegay (polarizing but with a real base)

• - Rushern Baker (name recognition alone keeps him in the conversation, even if I’m skeptical)

Everyone else is either too new, too underfunded, or too untested to call a frontrunner at this stage.